#5 China Scholar Insights: Trump 2.0 Policy
With Donald Trump again in the White House, the next four years will present new challenges for China-U.S. relations.
Welcome to the fifth edition of China Scholar Insights!
China Scholar Insights is a feature which aimed at providing you with the latest analysis on issues that Chinese scholars and strategic communities are focusing on. We will carefully select commentary articles and highlight key points. Questions or criticisms can be directed to sunchenghao@tsinghua.edu.cn.
ChinAffairs+ is a newsletter that shares Chinese academic articles focused on topics such as China’s foreign policy, China-U.S. relations, China-European relations, and more. This newsletter was co-founded by me and my research assistant, ZHANG Xueyu. I am SUN Chenghao, a fellow with the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University.
Chinese Scholars on Trump 2.0
Background
Trump 2.0 builds on his first-term agenda, intensifying economic protectionism, stricter immigration control, and withdrawal from international agreements. His policies could reshape global trade, climate policy, and U.S. foreign relations, impacting the global economy and America's role. Chinese scholars are focused on the potential effects of his second term on domestic and foreign policies, while the world closely watches the direction of U.S. leadership under Trump 2.0.
Summary
Chinese scholars note that Trump 2.0, with strong public support and a MAGA-aligned team, will reshape U.S. domestic and foreign policies. His agenda includes tax cuts, deregulation, stricter immigration, and economic protection, though challenges like labor shortages and inflation persist. In foreign policy, he will continue the Indo-Pacific Strategy and promote “unilateralism”. While economic protectionism may heighten U.S.-China tensions, China’s growing strength and supply chain dominance can mitigate the impact. China is expected to respond cautiously but more confidently, with enhanced communication key to managing relations.
Insights:
SUN Chenghao: Trump’s Decision-Making Style and China-U.S. Relations
Trump's Return to Office: Trump second term will present new challenges and opportunities for China-U.S. relations, with a focus on increased competition, particularly in geopolitics, security, trade, and technology. Trump’s decision-making style and team composition will significantly influence the future trajectory of the relationship.
Trump 2.0——Mature and Powerful: Trump's foreign policy in his second term is expected to be more mature, with greater emphasis on leadership and respect on the global stage. His team will likely include more establishment figures, but loyalty will still be a key criterion for appointments.
Policy Toward China: Trump's stance on China will be more hard-line than in his first term. Economic “decoupling” and restrictions on technology and military advancements are expected. Disagreements within his administration, particularly regarding competition policy, may lead to mixed approaches.
Risks and Tensions:
Taiwan Strait: Tensions may intensify, particularly if the U.S. maintains a tough stance on Taiwan, increasing the risk of military friction.
Technology Competition: U.S.-China tech rivalry will extend beyond national security and military technologies to broader sectors like AI and semiconductors, with the U.S. continuing its containment policy.
Opportunities for Cooperation:
Law Enforcement: Collaboration on issues like fentanyl control offers potential for cooperation. Both sides need to address domestic governance challenges in tackling transnational drug crimes.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Both China and the U.S. have a shared interest in ending the conflict. Cooperation on promoting peace and assisting Ukraine's reconstruction could improve global stability and international image.
Technology Dialogue: Despite fierce competition, there are areas for engagement on technical standards, cybersecurity, and AI governance, which could foster a more positive global tech ecosystem and reduce adversarial postures.
Key to Future Relations: Effective management of differences, enhanced communication, and deeper cooperation in various sectors can help China-U.S. relations find a new balance in a changing international environment.
JIN Canrong: Leveraging Pressure from Trump 2.0, China Should Focus on Two Major Tasks
Trump 2.0: Stronger Public Support and Better Preparation
(1) Foundation: Integration of Six Powers and Public Opinion
Beyond the traditional separation of powers (executive, judicial, legislative), Trump has also secured control over party power, media power, and religious influence.This integration of powers reflects Trump’s solid public support, as evidenced by his increased popular vote.
(2) Preparation: A Complete Team
Unlike 2016, when Trump relied on recommendations from the establishment, he now has a handpicked team characterized by absolute loyalty, alignment with MAGA ideology (including "America First" and isolationism), youth, and anti-China sentiment.
Domestic Priorities and Practical Challenges
(1) Domestic Policy: Conservatism
Trump’s domestic agenda focuses on revitalizing manufacturing through tax cuts, lowering energy costs by relaxing environmental regulations, increasing tariffs, and cracking down on illegal immigration. He also aims to reduce government spending and restore traditional values.
However, challenges include potential federal-state conflicts over immigration, inflation from higher tariffs, difficulty in cutting government spending, and the long-term effort needed to restore traditional values.
(2) Foreign Policy: Neo-Isolationism
Trump’s chief strategy prioritizes domestic policy, with foreign affairs taking a secondary role. Trump aims to reduce U.S. hegemony costs while maintaining its benefits, pressuring allies to shoulder more responsibility. His hope to shift focus to China, with efforts to quickly resolve conflicts in Ukraine, Israel-Palestine, and elsewhere.
The possibility is high that Trump will defuse the conflict at the expense of Ukraine. Meanwhile, he will step up pressure on Iran and ask moderate Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia to take sides. However, the reluctance of allies and the inability of the U.S. maypotentially lead to poor implementation.
China's Response: Stay Cautious but Not Overly Concerned
China’s reduced reliance on foreign trade and the declining U.S.-China trade volume lessen the impact of a trade war. To counter economic shocks, China can seek tariff exemptions, boost re-exports, and invest in non-strategic sectors abroad. It should also use external pressure to unify its market and strengthen international partnerships. For non-trade issues, China should focus on self-reliance and develop counter-deterrence strategies.
Behind the Election: Divided U.S. Capital and the End of U.S.-Led Globalization
The stability of U.S. society has historically depended on a unified capital base, but the current election reveals deep divisions rooted in unequal benefits from globalization. As U.S.-led globalization declines, the rise of China, India, ASEAN, and other Southern nations is reshaping the global order, ushering in a new era of globalization led by Eastern and Southern countries, with China at the forefront.
Wu Xinbo: Over the past thirty years, I have seen three different United States
From the Cold War to 20 century: three different United States
Wu argues that after the Cold War, 'engagement' and 'enlargement' were central to the Clinton administration's vision of U.S. global leadership. However, the 9/11 attacks, the subprime mortgage crisis, and wars led to frustration and dissatisfaction, exacerbated by strategic errors. By the 2010s, the U.S. faced increasing division, with deepening political, social, and cultural conflicts. In this context, Trump emerged, with policies likely to further intensify these divisions.
Return, contraction, and hegemony: Three keywords for future development
Wu attributes the changes to the rise of internationalism and liberalism. The U.S.'s core aim has been to maintain WASP dominance and global leadership, but both are now challenged. Domestic demographic, cultural, and value changes undermine WASP dominance, while other countries' rise challenges the U.S.-centered system. As a result, the U.S. is undergoing a transformation marked by 'return, contraction, and hegemony.' Trump seeks to revert to a pre-Cold War U.S.-centric system, selectively maintaining international rules and alliances based on U.S. interests.
Trump's Trilogy
Trump aims for three changes: the 'Trumpification' of the Republican Party, the spread of Trumpism in policies, and creating a 'Trump system.' The third is most crucial, as Trump seeks to reform the U.S. governance structure and preserve his legacy.
However, this goal poses risks: it will deepen liberal-conservative divides, worsen partisan conflict, and cause domestic division; U.S. retreat from international cooperation will affect alliances and reshape the global order; and U.S. hegemonism will escalate economic, military, and diplomatic tensions with China, leading to more extreme policies toward China.
From cooperation to strategic competition: The logic of changes and prediction in China-U.S. relations
Before Trump's first term, China and the U.S. cooperated to resolve conflicts. However, during his first term, they entered strategic competition, focusing on reducing losses and increasing the other's. Avoiding large-scale conflicts, including military ones, remains a common interest.
In Trump's second term, U.S.-China relations are unpredictable, with heightened strategic competition, reduced interaction, and rising conflict risks. This competition will impact the international and multilateral systems, including alliances. For China, the priority is minimizing losses, as the struggle with the U.S. has become inevitable.
Yin Jiwu: The Dual Traits of Trump 2.0
Trump 2.0-Redefining Politics and Global Strategy
Trump is set to reshape U.S. politics and global relations in the next four years. Despite the turmoil of his first term, his polarizing image deepens U.S. political divisions. His personality and experience influence other countries' strategies in engaging with the U.S. His policies reflect populism, anti-globalization, and conservatism, resonating with his base, providing insight into his impact on national and international affairs.
Trump’s True Self and Rational Strategy
Trump’s political influence is often seen as disruptive, with his personality and policy tendencies described as “unpredictable”. However, his core beliefs have remained consistent over time, Trump has consistently favored unilateralism, strong leadership, economic-driven alliances, and protectionism. Trump uses his distinctive traits and emotional performances to achieve strategic goals in areas like diplomacy, economic negotiations, and international relations. His emphasis on “leader friendship” often ties directly to the exchange of strategic interests.
From Political Novice to Political Powerhouse
Trump’s first term challenged American democracy, showcasing his personality and ideas. In his second term, his influence on the Republican Party and U.S. politics is undeniable. Trump 2.0 reflects a return to his unique traits and policies, becoming a key driver of political change. Over the next four years, his impact on global politics will become more pronounced.
Yu Xiang: Chinese economy is confident and well-prepared to cope with the “Trump Shock”
Increasing tariffs is a double-edged sword
In the short term, increased import tariffs protected some industries but raised prices and triggered retaliatory tariffs from Europe. During the 2018-2019 China-U.S. trade war, China eased pressure by diversifying export markets, adding product value, and expanding its supply chain. Meanwhile, high tariffs imposed by Trump were passed onto U.S. consumers, worsening inflation and fueling public discontent.
China’s industrial chain advantage is difficult to replace
Trump’s trade policies may push the U.S. further decoupling its supply chain from China, yet China’s dominant position in the global supply chain remains evident. Although some companies have shifted their production lines to countries such as Vietnam and India, these countries still face significant gaps compared to China, leading to higher costs and decreased efficiency during the transition. At the same time, China has been continuously optimizing its domestic business environment and upgrading industrial chain, making the Chinese market more attractive.
Potential of China's High-Quality Economic Development: Expanding Domestic Demand and Driving Technological Innovation
China has issued guidelines to expand domestic demand by increasing the fiscal deficit, issuing long-term bonds, boosting consumption, and supporting private sectors. It has also invested in technological innovation, achieving breakthroughs in semiconductors, new energy, and artificial intelligence to promote industrial upgrading and technological independence.
Deepening International Cooperation
China is expanding economic and trade cooperation through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), strengthening ties with countries across Central Asia, Europe, Africa, and Latin America. By increasing domestic demand, using fiscal policies, promoting technological innovation, and deepening international cooperation, China can maintain steady growth and achieve more autonomous, sustainable development amid external uncertainties like the "Trump shock."
Chen Jimin: How U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy Will Evolve Under Trump 2.0
In Trump's second term, the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" will largely inherit the policy framework of the Biden administration, but there may be new changes in policy coordination and alliance relationships.
Indo-Pacific Strategy: From Trump to Biden
The U.S. "Indo-Pacific Strategy" has historical continuity, with Trump setting the framework and Biden expanding it. Biden's approach systematizes the strategy, focusing on economic and non-traditional security issues, institutionalizes small multilateral arrangements like QUAD and AUKUS, and enlarges cross-regional and cross-issue cooperation. Security remains a core aspect of the strategy, with both administrations aiming to enhance the region's security layout.
Policy Succession and Changes in Trump 2.0
Trump's second term is likely to continue Biden's Indo-Pacific policy with some changes in synergies and alliances. While Trump may have reservations about the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, he will likely push for a 'resilient' and 'fair economy,' abandoning the 'clean economy.' He may also reshape the alliance system, demanding more responsibility from allies.
Despite the unpredictability of Trump's policies, the past eight years have witnessed continuity in the implementation of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy. China has a clear understanding of the US Indo-Pacific strategy and has accumulated experience in dealing with it, and it is expected that in the next four years, China will be more confident and calm in dealing with the Indo-Pacific strategy under Trump's second term.
Conclusion:
Trump 2.0 will significantly reshape U.S. domestic policy and international relations, focusing on economic protectionism, immigration reform, and a more unilateral foreign policy, especially in the Indo-Pacific. While Trump and Biden share strategic goals, Trump’s approach is more isolationist. As U.S.-China tensions rise, China’s economic strength and innovation may help it navigate Trump’s policies, leading to shifts in global alliances, economic strategies, and geopolitical dynamics.
Writers and Editors for Today’s Newsletter:
Writers:
HNIN Lei Lei Wai, WANG Jiaying, HU Lingzhi, BAI Xuhuan, GAO Liangyu, Tsinghua University
Editors:
SUN Chenghao, Tsinghua University
ZHANG Xueyu, Nankai University
