On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump took the oath of office as the 47th President of the United States, officially beginning his second term, marking a new round of challenges and uncertainties in the world. Trump’s “America First” and anti-globalization policies characterized his first term, during which he launched a trade war with China and demanded that European allies increase their defence spending. How will Trump handle U.S. policies toward China and Europe in his second term? And what opportunities and challenges will this bring to China-EU relations? Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University’s China Forum has invited its Fellow Dr. SHI Yan, to discuss these issues in this podcast episode.
Dr. SHI believes that Trump’s return to the White House is not unexpected for Europe. However, whether Europe is truly prepared to respond strategically and tactically remains to be seen. At the same time, Dr. SHI holds that, due to the impact of the Ukraine crisis, Europe today is weaker than it was during Trump’s first term. Compared to economic and trade frictions with the U.S., Europe is likely to place more emphasis on security issues, which could leave room for Trump to implement new tariff policies toward Europe. The resolution of the Ukraine crisis, the U.S.-EU tariff issues, and trade tensions will likely take higher priority on the U.S.-EU agenda, and China-related issues may also gain prominence.
It is important to note that Europe is not only facing external challenges but also internal voices with differing attitudes toward the U.S. This will be a key issue for Europe to address during Trump’s second term. Looking ahead, Europe’s relationship with the U.S. may range from “agreeing and following” to “being forced to follow”, or it may exhibit “actively pursuing autonomy” in its dealings with Washington. However, regardless of the situation, during the “Trump 2.0” period, China and Europe should focus on cooperation rather than competition or ideological differences, emphasizing bilateral relations to better address the opportunities and challenges in their interactions.
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