FENG Zhongping on Europe-U.S. Relations: A Tough Period of the Reconstruction
The relationship between Europe and the United States might face new turbulence and tough reconstruction.
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Summary
The article points out that as the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, especially with the possibility of Trump’s comeback, the relationship between Europe and the United States will face new turbulence and tough reconstruction. In transatlantic relations, the United States is the main variable, and the rotation of its parties and presidents has a significant impact on Europe-U.S. relations.
During the first four years of Trump’s presidency (2017-2020), the Europe-U.S. alliance was severely damaged, and it was not until Biden took office that transatlantic relations were repaired and strengthened. But with the increasing possibility of Trump’s return to the White House, the 2024 U.S. election has triggered a “Trump phobia” in Europe. If Trump is re-elected as the President of the United States, it will intensify the divergent ideas between Europe and the United States and their economic frictions.
But this article also emphasizes that, regardless of the outcome of the U.S. election, transatlantic relations will enter a tough period of reshaping. While exploring new models of European security cooperation with the United States, Europe also needs to constantly adapt to the greater economic and commercial conflicts between the two sides. Meanwhile, the rise of radical forces such as populism in Europe will further increase the complexity and uncertainty for the future development of Europe-U.S. relations.
Why It Matters
In recent times, the Chinese academic community has been closely observing the impact of the U.S. election on U.S. domestic and foreign policies. Numerous academic conferences and publications have centered their discussions around this topic. This article reflects the mainstream view within Chinese academia on the future trajectory of Europe-U.S. relations, acknowledging that regardless of who is in power, the overall framework of Europe-U.S. relations will not fundamentally change. However, it also suggests that different presidents may bring about varying shifts in transatlantic relations.
This article first outlines the changes in transatlantic relations during the Trump and Biden administrations, clarifying the measures each president took to influence or repair these relations. It also points out that the upcoming presidential election will have new implications for transatlantic relations. Unlike typical analytical articles, the author argues that regardless of who is elected as the next U.S. president, the U.S.-Europe relationship needs to be redefined. The current global political landscape, the trajectory of U.S. politics, U.S.-Europe economic relations, and the political developments in Europe all indicate that the U.S.-Europe relations cannot remain static, but should instead explore new dynamics.
The differing attitudes of the two U.S. political parties toward alliance issues create significant uncertainties in American foreign policy. For instance, if Trump returns to the White House, the U.S. is likely to seek a rapid exit from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and reduce its investment in maintaining the alliance system, which would have a substantial impact on the situation in Ukraine and, in the long term, could alter transatlantic relations. If Harris were to take office, she is likely to continue the foreign policy of the Biden administration. However, the lingering influence of “Trumpism” may still prompt European countries to plan ahead to mitigate the potential impacts of a Trump presidency, resulting in a significant reshaping of transatlantic relations.
Key Points
Biden Administration: the Remedy for Alliance and Cooperation
In 2021, when Biden defeated Trump as the president of the United States, the European-American alliance was in jeopardy. During the Biden administration, although witnessed fluctuations, the transatlantic relations has not only stepped out of Trump’s low period, but also strengthened bilateral cooperation in various fields in general.
Challenges: Negative Impact of Trump's Administration on Transatlantic Relations
Limited Commitment to NATO Allies: First, Trump refused to make clear security commitments to NATO countries, arguing that many of them were not contributing enough to defense spending. This stance undermined the foundation of U.S.-Europe relations to some extent. Additionally, Trump suspended some high-level strategic meetings between the U.S. and Europe.
Trump’s Unilateralism vs. EU’s Multilateralism: Trump’s unilateralism and “America First” policy, including withdrawal from multilateral institutions and high tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from EU countries, have intensified economic tensions between Europe and the United States, opposing the European commitment to multilateralism.
Trump’s personal resentment towards the EU : Trump likes to come into contact with a single European country rather than the EU. During his four-year term in office, he made no secret of his hatred towards the EU, and has repeatedly encouraged France and other countries to follow the footsteps of Britain to “leave the EU”. Europeans are forced to take control of their own destiny.
Revival : Biden’s efforts to improve Europe-U.S. relations
Return to Multilateralism: In 2021, Biden emphasized that “the United States is back” as soon as he took office. By returning to international multilateral institutions and organizations that Trump withdrew from, he reiterated his support for the so-called “rules-based international system” , which regained the trust of European countries.
Easing Trade Disputes and Expanding Cooperation: Biden eased trade disputes between Europe and the United States with two key “truce” decisions: resolving the aviation subsidy conflict between Boeing and Airbus in June 2021, and addressing the steel-aluminum trade war initiated by Trump in October 2021, which halted high tariffs. Additionally, cooperation in high-tech sectors has strengthened through platforms like the Transatlantic Trade and Technology Council (TTC).
Russia-Ukraine Conflict: EU’s increased Military Dependence on the U.S. and the Revitalization of U.S.-European Cooperation Mechanisms
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine highlights Europe’ s dependence on the United States in security, and European countries need to strengthen NATO to deter Russia. Additionally, after the outbreak of that conflict, Biden administration quickly convened a special NATO summit, joining hands with Europe to impose severe sanctions on Russia and support Ukraine, which led to the continuous reinforcement of bilateral relations. At the same time, western platforms such as NATO, EU-US summit, especially the Group of Seven, whose influence has been declining since the Cold War, have revived.
Trump's Return: A New Turning Point in U.S.-Europe Relations
With the increasing likelihood of Trump’s return to the White House, the 2024 U.S. election has raised significant concerns in Europe. If the Democratic Party wins, it is clear that the relationship between Europe and the United States will not undergo fundamental changes. However, if Trump is victorious, while the Europe-U.S. alliance may not collapse, his actions could introduce greater risks for Europe. As a result, the future of the transatlantic relationship will face considerable uncertainty.
Reasserting “America First”: Europe is increasingly concerned that Trump, if reelected, will further embrace the "America First" principle and promote his "three doctrines": populism, conservatism, and isolationism. Trump and his campaign team, including think tanks like the Heritage Foundation, have learned from their previous administration and plan to appoint loyalists to key positions, minimizing the influence of traditional moderates in the Republican Party. Consequently, if Trump returns to power, tensions between Europe and the United States are likely to intensify.
Security Concerns in Europe: NATO’s "Brain Death" and the Russian Threat: Many European countries view Trump's potential return as a “nightmare”, fearing that the U.S. and NATO may abandon their security commitments, which could hollow out the transatlantic alliance. Trump's ongoing dissatisfaction with the EU’s military spending has made his stance on NATO even more negative than during his first term. While European nations believe he may not withdraw the U.S. from NATO, they worry he could refuse to act if European allies are attacked. Additionally, during the 2024 election campaign, Trump claimed he could end the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 24 hours by pressuring Ukraine to concede territory for a Russian ceasefire—an approach that contrasts sharply with the positions of most European countries regarding the conflict.
Escalation of Trade Frictions Between the U.S. and Europe: Europe is increasingly aware that no matter who wins the election, the economic competitiveness of Europe and the United States is inevitable. Both sides are unwilling to make concessions, the aforementioned “truce” promoted by Biden administration has not finally solved the problem. But Trump's presidency will exacerbate trade frictions and disputes further. The United States will not only raise tariffs on products imported from the European Union, but also constantly put pressure on European countries in the name of security, asking them to follow the United States to restrict exchanges with China.
Challenging Times for U.S.-European Relations: As incidents involving attacks on candidates increase during the U.S. election season, international attention on the elections has heightened. Regardless of the outcome, transatlantic relations will enter a challenging period of redefinition.
Internal Political Developments in the U.S. and Europe Impacting Transatlantic Relations
Shifting Sands——U.S. Foreign Policy Focus：Due to factors like economic inflation, racial inequality, gun violence, and immigration issues, the United States is increasingly preoccupied with domestic affairs, gradually shifting its strategic focus from Europe to the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, resulting in diminished policy coherence. Additionally, the rise of populist forces in the U.S., particularly represented by Trump, has led to significant differences in foreign policy between the two major parties. This mutual constraint will persist after the U.S. elections, affecting the implementation of U.S. foreign policy.
Europe’s Call to Arms——Embracing Defense Independence: In this new phase, the U.S. is unlikely to fully protect Europe, compelling European nations to bolster their own defenses. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has transformed Russia from a “potential threat” to a “real threat”, prompting countries like France and Germany to unite in sharing responsibility for European security, marking a shift from “responsibility sharing” to “responsibility transfer”. Meanwhile, there is an increasing trend of populism within the European Union, with a notable rise in “Eurosceptic” sentiments in several countries. If Trump wins, the far-right populist forces in Europe will undoubtedly be greatly encouraged, and its continuous development will further increase the complexity and uncertainty of the future development of Europe-U.S. relations.
U.S.-European Trade Frictions and Adjustments in U.S. Foreign Policy
Asymmetric Economic Dependence Between the U.S. and Europe Cooperation with the United States remains vital for Europe, as the U.S. has long been the EU’s largest trading partner and investment destination. Notably, Europe’s economic dependence on the U.S. is greater; in 2022, EU exports to the U.S. accounted for 2.8% of its GDP, while U.S. exports to the EU comprised only 1.4%. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has further exacerbated this economic imbalance.
Navigating Tough Choices: The U.S. Priority and European Dilemmas The principle of “America First” has transcended partisan divides in the U.S., forcing Europe to adapt to escalating competition. European countries anticipate that the winner of the 2024 U.S. election will adopt a hardline stance towards China, compelling the EU and its members to grapple with the dilemma of choosing sides between the U.S. and China.
Conclusion
Since the end of World War II, especially since the establishment of NATO in 1949, Europe-U.S. relations have gone through two periods: the Cold War(version 1.0) and the post Cold War(version 2.0). Now, as the U.S. presidential election approaching, Europe-U.S. relations step to a new period of reconstruction (version 3.0). If the Democratic Party wins the presidential election, the transatlantic cooperation will not change fundamentally. But if Trump wins, the future of the Europe-U.S. relations will face great uncertainty.
For China, it is necessary to have a correct understanding of the essential characteristics of the Europe-U.S. relations, in order to adapt to new changes. It also needs to be adept at utilizing positive factors in the Europe-U.S. relations and the international community, to enhance its own strength, winning respect and cooperation.
About the Author
FENG Zhongping 冯仲平: The article is authored by Professor Feng Zhongping, Director of the Institute of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), also President of the Chinese Association for European Studies. Prof. FENG received PhD at the Department of history in the University of Lancaster, UK. His research focuses on the EU, Sino-European relations, transatlantic relations, NATO, etc. He is author of many books and papers both in Chinese and English.
About the Publication
The Chinese version of this article was published in International Forum（《国际论坛》）. The journal, which founded in 1999 by Beijing Foreign Studies University and supervised by the Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China, is one of the most comprehensive academic journal specializing in international issues research. In 1999, the publication was renamed from “Eastern Europe” to “International Forum”, and the issue was changed to bimonthly. In December 2014, the journal became one of the first academic journals recognized by the former the State Administration of Film Radio and television (SARFT).
In the same year, the journal was rated as the core journal of political science in the Evaluation Report of Chinese Humanities and Social Sciences Journals (2014). In 2017, the journal became one of the first online debut journals of China Academic Journals (Online Edition). At present, the permanent columns of “International Forum” include international politics, international relations, Sino-foreign relations, theoretical exploration, countries and regions, world economy, etc., which have generated increasing influence at home and abroad.
